Getting the green light on Christmas - Holiday movie guide

Because we live in Santa Monica, it’s easy to forget that when you leave here, you’re in Los Angeles. I’m just glad that Hollywood only comes here sporadically in the occasional movie star sighting at the skating rink or on the Third Street Promenade (and an unfortunate episode at Whole Foods when I asked the woman in line behind me if anyone ever told her she bore a striking resemblance to Jennifer Beals only to realize, to my horror, that it actually was Jennifer Beals). Outside ourbeloved bubble, this is an industry town - and that industry is the movie business.

My best friends growing up were almost all Jewish kids (liberal Massachusetts Jews whose parents loved me like one of their own) and one of the things I learned about was the ancient Christmas night tradition of going out for Chinese food and a movie. With Christmas falling on a Thursday this year, weekend box office totals will get the padding of an additional day on top of the annual "Baruch Atah Adonai Bump." Half a dozen of the biggest names in the biz have movies opening Christmas weekend in everything from romantic comedies to historical dramas. If not for the state of the economy, that would be a good thing. But this weekend will end up being like a make-or-break sales pitch for a few different film genres, and whichever movies get butts into seats in the next few days will be the templates for the movies that will get green-lighted next year. Hollywood may occasionally take a chance on a studio head, but never on projects for A-List actors.

For your consideration, here are this weekend’s big openings and where they’ll finish:

"Bedtime Stories" stars Adam Sandler as a loveable janitor baby-sitting his adorable niece and nephew who discovers that the outlandish things the kids make up when he reads to them at night actually happen the next day. Hijinks ensue when he tries to use the kids’power to get his dream job. A Christmas day opening for a movie with a Jewish lead actor is a good play and this one should finish in the top three, so look for plenty of feel-good family films in 2009.

"Valkyrie" stars Tom Cruise as a German army officer at the center of a failed plot to kill Hitler in 1944. This wish-fulfillment-fantasy is also a good play for a Christmas day opening. Unfortunately, Cruise has the same problem as Angelina Jolie in that even when he’s wearing an eye patch and Nazi officer’s uniform, all I can think of when I see him on-screen is, "that’s Tom Cruise in an eye patch and Nazi officer’s uniform." This one should finish in the bottom three, thankfully ensuring we don’t see any big stars in historical dramas next year.

Only serious make-up prevents Brad Pitt’s instantly recognizable face from being a distraction in "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button." But when you start with an F. Scott Fitzgerald short story about a man who was born in his 70’s and aged backward to childhood before dying, add Brad Pitt, and get David Fincher to direct, you get quality filmmaking. A top three finisher for sure.

"Marley & Me" is about a blonde couple and their precocious yellow Lab. It stars Jennifer Aniston,Owen Wilson, and a dog. It will finish in the top three and next year there will be a ton of movies starring all-American girls, squarejawed white guys, and animals. Also, Jen might get the sweet redemption of opening bigger than Brad this weekend.

Leo DiCaprio and Kate Winslet trade the long, slow death of drowning for the long, slow death of suburban life in the ‘50s in "Revolutionary Road," opening Friday. It looks excellent, but will finish in the bottom three, ensuring the nostalgia for that period will be confined to "Mad Men" and won’t make it to Hollywood next year.

My money is on Frank Miller’s "The Spirit" to finish on top. It’s a classic tale of good vs. evil in the battle for immortality, fought in an urban landscape occupied by a bevy of comic book beauties played by some of Hollywood’s hottest. It would be a can’t-miss hit even if it didn’t have a built-in fan base that geeks out on graphic novels, but the fact that moviegoers can hit the multiplex twice this weekend means "Spirit" fans will be doubling down at the box office while those others will only get one look. As a comic book aficionado, I’m hoping "The Spirit" is number one with $30 million in box office on Monday — if for no other reason than to slow down the "Twilight" phenomenon and stem the tide of teenage vampire movies the studios are rushing into production for next year.