Fighting terrorists with loaded guns - The Pakistan problem

In the six years since the President’s daily brief entitled “Bin Laden Determined to Strike Inside the United States”, thousands have been killed, ten of thousands wounded, and billions of dollars spent on the “war on terrorism”. Not to mention the loss of American credibility, stature, and moral high ground due to the shame of Abu Ghraib, Guantanamo, secret CIA prisons, warrantless wiretapping, and the elimination of the 700-year-old Writ of Habeas Corpus. But according to a threat assessment by the National Counterintelligence Center (entitled “Al Qaeda Better Positioned to Strike the West”) and the National Intelligence Estimate, it has gotten us exactly nothing. In fact, Al Qaeda, the supposed target of the “war”, is as strong as it’s been since September 11, 2001.

The findings in the CIC report are not good, and the findings in the NIE are worse. Al Qaeda’s recruiting is up, planning is up, and their franchise operation, Al Qaeda in Iraq (which didn’t even exist six years ago), is thriving to the point where they have a network of suicide bombers coming to Iraq from all over the region, a network of supporters funding their operations, and have caused US forces to ally with former Sunni “insurgents” - many with American blood on their hands. The two reports have caused me to re-examine some of the Bush Administration’s most repeated statements about this “war on terrorism”:

“Two thirds of Al Qaeda’s leadership has been captured or killed.” The Bushies love to toss this one out whenever anyone questions whether or not we are “defeating” Al Qaeda. The implication being that the new Al Qaeda is the JV. However, it’s no secret Osama bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri, the two top guys in the organization before and since September 11, 2001, remain free. And the NIE assesses that Al Qaeda has “regenerated” its “operational lieutenants, and its top leadership”, so they’re back to where they were in the summer of 2001, only a few miles to the West.

“We’re fighting them over there so we don’t have to fight them here” or the argument that the invasion of Iraq would minimize the terrorist threat at home. This is the line they use to counter the argument that the invasion of Iraq distracted from the fight against terrorism, centered in Pakistan/Afghanistan where Osama bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri are/were. But the NIE says that Al Qaeda in Iraq could be used by Al Qaeda in Pakistan to carry out terrorist attacks in the US - and Al Qaeda in Iraq didn’t even exist before the invasion. So the idea that invading and occupying Iraq would make us safer at home is ridiculous since this Al Qaeda franchise, founded to resist the occupation and the puppet government, is the most likely vehicle by which the US would be attacked .

“Al Qaeda is on the run.” I love this one. Whenever anyone in the Administration was asked why the only remaining superpower and the biggest, baddest military force in the history of the world has been unable to find one man suspected to be traveling with a dialysis machine through terrain which would challenge a mountain goat, they’ve alternated between claiming he just doesn’t matter all that much and claiming he’s a fugitive who is running out of places to hide. Neither turns out to be accurate. According to the NIE, he has found a new safe haven to replace the one granted to him by the Taliban in Afghanistan: the Federally Administered Tribal Areas of Pakistan. And his new benefactor? Pakistani President General Pervez Musharraf.

It was President Musharraf who (following President Bush’s example in Iraq) refuses to send enough troops into the Tribal Areas to root out Taliban and Al Qaeda fighters. It is Presidetn Musharraf who signed a cease-fire (since broken) with tribal leaders last September in which they promised to stop protecting Taliban and Al Qaeda fighters in their areas – an agreement which Assistant Secretary of State Richard Boucher said gave Al Qaeda the ability to “operate, meet, plan, recruit, and obtain financing in more comfort”. It is Pakistani intelligence who use Taliban and Al Qaeda fighters as proxies in their dispute with India over Kashmir and in their ongoing border battles with Afghanistan. In short, it is the Pakistani government which is providing both aid and comfort to Osama bin Laden, Ayman al-Zawahiri, Al Qaeda, and the Taliban in their fight against the United States of America. This, of course, calls the founding principle of the “war on terrorism” as laid out by President Bush: “either you are with us, or you are with the terrorists.”

The actions of President Musharraf show where his loyalty lies, and the actions of President Bush show that his words have ceased to have any meaning.